The World Bank has issued a stark warning in its April 2025 Africa’s Pulse report, projecting that poverty levels in Nigeria will rise by 3.6 percentage points by 2027 — the final year of President Bola Tinubu's first term. The report categorizes Nigeria as a resource-rich but fragile state, where poverty is expected to worsen, unlike other regions in sub-Saharan Africa that are projected to experience modest improvements.
According to the World Bank, this rise in poverty aligns with a historical pattern where nations with abundant natural resources and governance challenges tend to record the highest poverty rates — forecasting an average poverty rate of 46% in 2024, significantly higher than in more stable economies.
This warning comes on the heels of an earlier IMF assessment stating that while Nigeria’s recent reforms have created a more stable economic foundation, they have yet to yield tangible relief for citizens. Economic challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate unification have led to soaring inflation, dollar exchange rates exceeding ₦1,600, and fuel prices rising from ₦145 to nearly ₦1,000.
Despite widespread criticism, including nationwide protests in August 2024, President Tinubu maintains that these hardships are necessary for long-term economic revival and private sector-driven growth. However, the mounting pressure from global institutions suggests a growing urgency for more inclusive and impact-focused policy adjustments.