The National Institute for Policy and Strategic Studies (NIPSS) has projected a significant drop in petrol prices in Nigeria, citing the operational readiness of domestic refineries, particularly the Dangote Refinery and the revitalized Port Harcourt Refinery. The forecast follows the sharp increase in fuel prices—currently hovering around ₦930 per litre—after the removal of fuel subsidies by the Bola Tinubu administration.
Speaking on Channels Television’s The Morning Brief on Tuesday, NIPSS Director-General, Prof. Ayo Omotayo, acknowledged the burden of rising fuel costs but expressed optimism about near-term relief. “We are buying fuel a little bit more expensive now, but as we predict at the National Institute, if we continue with what we are doing, fuel by itself will come down,” Omotayo stated.
He added that the Port Harcourt Refinery has operated continuously for 110 days, while the Dangote Refinery is poised to further stabilize local supply. According to NIPSS projections, petrol prices could drop to ₦750 per litre or lower by year-end, driven by increased domestic refining and reduced dependence on fuel imports.
In addition to fuel price relief, Omotayo forecasted a foreign exchange improvement, predicting the naira could strengthen to ₦1,300 per dollar by the end of the year, as Nigeria moves toward becoming a net exporter of refined petroleum products.
The remarks signal a cautiously optimistic outlook for Nigerians grappling with high fuel costs and economic uncertainty—pending consistent performance and output from local refining operations.
“The gains at this time are minimal, but then in the long run, we will make up for whatever sacrifices we have made today as Nigerians.”
President Tinubu’s action ended a long-running arrangement to support fuel prices. For years, the Federal Government swapped crude for gasoline that it then subsidised for its domestic market, causing a huge drain on revenue and foreign exchange and contributing to ballooning debt. Tinubu had vowed on the campaign trail to remove the costly help, and during his inauguration, he declared that the “fuel subsidy is gone.”
The uncertainty and sudden change caused panic among many in the country, leading to a spike in the cost of the product.